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Coalition Rumours
When the election was first called, I wrote about chatter regarding possible coalitions after January 23rd. Now, three weeks in, the rumour mill seems to be only heating up further.
Sources have let on to me that mid-level national operatives of both the NDP and the Tory parties have been meeting to discuss a potential future parliamentary coalition.
Reports are still sketchy at best, but at least two things are clear thus far: It would be a coalition for the purposes of democratic and institutional reform (possibly leading to a PR system?); and it would only be considered if between the Tories and the NDP they had at least 155 seats - enough to sit as a majority.
There has been reports in other media that the NDP are publically speaking out against this possibility - and that is part of the plan. Layton knows full well that many people would rush from the NDP to the Liberals in 'strategic' voting droves if they thought the Tories would win a majority. While the defections would not be of the same degree for a Tory minority, there would be some - this nesseciates keeping the idea off the table, at least for the earlier stages of the campaign, while Harper is still seen as a boogey man to many Ontarians.
The coalition may not come to pass, but it is looking more and more likely that if the political conditions are right, it may become a reality.
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From today's Toronto Star:
"I think a major research project would have to be conducted to find anything" the parties could work together on, Layton joked here yesterday.
While lying to the media supports your case, there is nothing that the NDP and conservatives agree on, is there?
That was actually in yesterday's Star, but no matter. You'll notice that the two keys there were one thing that is stated, and one thing that isn't.
The stated item is the words 'Layton joked'. Clearly, while there is much that they disagree on, there are other policies in which they do agree. In the last gov't, the Tories and the NDP voted the same way on bills multiple times - that is hardly a sign that they are in complete disagreement on everything.
The unstated (and much more important) fact is that Layton never actually said 'There is no chance, no how, that we will form a coalition with the Tories'. He danced around the question using humour and non-answers. In this way, he can't be accused of lying to the media.
1)If this happened, the government would be defeated on its first budget.
2)It would drive small 'c' conservatives to the Liberals ie. the very few Toronto conservative voters, thus meaning the Conservatives would set themselves back years of hardwork trying to make a dent in the heart of Ontario.
3) The Conservatives would alienate their grassroots. (same can be said for the NDP)
This will not happen - the Conservative party has been accusing the Liberals of "doing anything to stay in power" for too long. This would be the same thing.
At BEST, they would pass a couple bills, but NEVER would they get a budget passed.
i) The budget is absolutely the tricky part - however, a compromise budget can be reached, with more limited tax cuts.
ii) Far from it. If a Tory-NDP coalition were a success, the conservatives would gain weak Liberal voters who right now are just afraid to vote for the boogeyman that the Tories are painted by the Grits to be. Likewise, the NDP could show themselves to be effective in gov't.
iii) That would all depend on how it was played. But for every former Reformer who went (to where?) there would be a Red Tory who moved back. As for the NDP, it could (or it might not, depending on how it handled itself) find a surge of NewLabour proportions.
I really think anything could happen. Stranger things have happened.
But one thing I do know is that Harper would have a Conservative caucus mutiny if he tried to pull this stunt.
If Harper doesn't win a majority, he'll have a revolt on his hands regardless.
Josh:
They both support instutitional and democratic reform, they both have policies that look out for lower-income Canadians (albeit in different ways), and they both look to be taking a firmer stand in Canada - US relations.
Harper is not going to have a "revolt" if he loses. You think he doesn't know that he's gone if he doesn't win this time?
Of course he does.
For all of Harper's shortcomings, I still can't see him ever striking a long-lasting agreement with the NDP knowing very well he would risk the entire future of the conservative party.
My sources (actual current conservative member's of parliament, people in the campaign war room, and even those on the bus/plane with Harper) have indicated to me that suggesting that any extensive agreement between the NDP and the Conservatives could happen is ludicrious.
I think I see our confsion. No, it would not be a long-lasting agreement. It would be strictly to get necessary business done, and would likely not last more than 18-24 months.
Sorry if I led you to believe that it would be anything permanant.
I still contend it would not make it past the first budget.
I would say 4 months tops - the normal time it takes before a government delivers its budget.
It may not happen - indeed, unless polls change very radically, it won't even have the chance off happening. But I wasn't reporting it as a definite, but rather as a rumour swirling around.
Time will tell.
I will cry for Canada's ability to be fiscally responsible in the case of a Conservative/NDP coalition. The Conservatives will keep cutting taxes and the NDP will keep pushing up the expenditures.
Seriously though. A conservative minority would be interesting. Considering they are the only right-wing party that is really active in all of Canada. Even the Bloc are social democrats, much closer to the NDP then the Liberals from a right to left perspective. It would be interesting to see - if it lasted for more than a month - how a conservative minority's legislation would be reshaped by the other parties to actually pass.
There are two centre-right parties in Canada - the Tories and the Liberals. With the exceptioni of child-care, Martin and Harper's ideologies are suprisingly similar. The difference is more is style than substance. Both support lower taxes, both support decentralisation of power (although Martin is doing it by stealth), both would allow limited private influence into health-care, et cetera...